The world is a stage and Trump loves the show.

What’s our score?

• $155M in trade volume in 2024
• $25M in successful trade finance transactions

Supply chain disruption is real. Slower trades bring about lower revenues. But humans are creative and businesses thrive on innovation. We expect Trump deal with UK not to wobble the statusquo. However, it’s worth noting that 43% of US companies have adjusted their supplier or sourcing strategies in response to increasing challenges. Additionally, nearly a third of companies are developing separate supply chains for China-specific, US-specific, or region-specific businesses to navigate trade restrictions and shifting market dynamics. While American businesses already rejig their factors of production, we expect China manufacturing to continue at increasing pace - you can’t fault 5,000 years of trial and error.

Will a recession force the new world order that will send Americans back to the factory? Or are we going to continue to see trends such as share buybacks, increased purchase of treasury bills and private takeover of public companies as response to Trump’s protectionism?

In a period where supply chain is politicised and weaponized through use of tariffs, we expect a strong dollar(only if Trump gets it right), high prices and weak stock market - recession looming. Just ask Karoline Leavitt

UPS, Amazon’s major logistics provider, has just announced that it is cutting 20,000 jobs. If Chinese goods no longer goes to the US - it’s largest buyer by a long shot, tell me who else has such deep consumer pockets? India? Who buys Chinese goods when China can export intermediate products to other countries that export to the US? China’s outward FDI increased to US$377bn over 2017-22. Which country has been benefitting from this industrial investment?

China have started flooding the world with cheap goods as a counter to US 145% tariff. Better still global companies seek to diversify supply chains as the disruption is real and wall street has started to price it in. New manufacturing and sourcing destinations are taking up the slack including Vietnam and Indonesia.

The US-China trade war is likened to a boy-girl relationship. We hope US doesn’t score an own goal because China is clearly playing the field.

Tariffs or not, the consuming markets have got needs and no disruption in supply chain can stop that. In fact, the volatility is a great opportunity.

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